A few things to remember about what is going on in Israel. And this may sound cynical, but unfortunately recent history bears me out.
1. This is not a war. This is what happens when you cede territory to a terrorist group with plenty of eager Muslim regimes supplying it with weapons. This is what happens when that terrorist group is supported by Egypt and Qatar.
2. Israel ethnically cleansed its Jewish population from Gaza and pulled out, and we were told this would improve Israel’s strategic position. Like every other withdrawal and pullout, it worsened it.
3. This is still not a war. What will most likely happen is that Israel will carry out some more air strikes and possibly even a limited ground operation. Some Hamas terrorists will die along with some Israeli civilians.
4. After some brief support for Israel’s actions in the international community, there will be some incident, real or faked, the Hamas stooges will brandish some bodies for the camera, the media will cry about disproportionate force and Washington Post pundits will say that Israel overreacted and lost the sympathy of the world.
5. Phone calls from Washington and London will warn Netanyahu to wind down the operation. Turkey or Egypt will offer to negotiate a truce. Israel will pull out. Hamas will celebrate the usual victory of insurgencies, that of surviving the war they began. Israeli generals and politicians will boast that Hamas knows better than to try the same thing again, as they have after every such operation. Hamas will hold funerals for its martyrs and begin firing rockets again to show that they can. Egypt, Turkey and Qatar will smell Israeli weakness.
6. Western terrorist supporters will begin making the next set of documentaries about Israeli atrocities and distributing them on campus. Israeli politicians will blame Netanyahu’s fumbling for losing the sympathy of the world. Israeli supporters will begin discussing new Hasbara methods to get Israel’s message out.
The message: “Israel wants peace, but sometimes has to defend itself again attacks. Israel will happily withdraw from everywhere so long as it isn’t being bombed.”
7. Israeli and American newspapers will run editorials urging another round of peace negotiations and withdrawals to stave off another such conflict… even though their urgings, their negotiations and their withdrawals are why the conflict exists.
8. Every Israeli general who gets face time on television during the conflict will shortly retire and run for office in a party with a platform dedicated to security, negotiations and more withdrawals. All of them will butch up and growl that their experience will allow Israel to have peace with security.
9. Next time around Hamas’ missiles will be bigger and better aimed.